Loading...

Wagah Border, Lahore, Pakistan

Wagah Border, Lahore, Pakistan

Friday, 4 December 2009

Violence forecast regarding the rise in Gas Prices

Protests by residents seem likely in major cities, due to gas shortages. Given the political and economic climate, it is likely for certain interest groups and different political stakeholders to turn protests into civil unrest; in order to enhance their vested interest and jeopardize the government’s functioning.

Being aware of the foreseeable shortfall, the government as a pro-active measure is engaged with the association of textile owners in Karachi and the Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources is giving assurances regarding the steady supply of gas for industrial purposes during winter. It is even more essential to note that with regards to gas, the shortages and the supply crises are going to effect Sui Northern Gas Pakistan Limited (SNGPL) and not Sui Southern Gas Pakistan Limited (SSGPL) due to the assurances by the Ministry of Petroleum to the textile industries in Karachi; so the shortfalls in Karachi should not cause civil unrest. However, though the government is keen to maintain the supply of gas to household consumers during the shortfall, its delivery is questionable.

The government assessing public backlash against rising gas prices, transferred price regulation to OGRA and detached itself from the responsibility, also securing the IMF criterion of deregulation. This might be seen as a political move to alienate itself form the decision making. As evident in the recent past, the Supreme Court intervened in OGRA’s decision to raise petroleum prices, thus, deflating the protest and curbing public anger. The government might later on intervene in similar fashion to support public sentiment and regain confidence, that is, if civil unrest begins. Given the ongoing sugar crisis in the country (this being a greater concern for consumers), it is highly unlikely that protests regarding gas supply cuts will turn into acts of civil unrest, as the government wants to maintain their credibility and commitment. It is also important to note that gas supply shortages and price increases will not be the sole cause for civil unrest.

Another important factor is to distinguish between gas price increase and supply shortfall. For the latter situation, the Pakistani Government is being pro active in forecasting supply shortfalls and engaging with the industry to identify new sources, i.e. they are negotiating with the Qatari Government to import natural gas.

The Theological Doctrine Inspiring the Taliban

Taliban in this modern day and age have become a phenomenon, which threaten the peace and livelihood of many individuals. The current impasse in Pakistan and the border regions of Afghanistan have left many developed nations with a fierce threat to their varied interests in the region. These self-proclaimed ‘students’ of Islam have demonized the religion by carrying out heinous acts and perpetrating terror amongst the local population. The Taliban of the current global structure are the illegitimate offshoot of the original ‘mujahedeen’ warriors, picked out from the region through Arab funding and indoctrinated with fundamentalist ideals with American help through the Pakistani border during the 80’s, in order to wage what was a much touted holy war against the then Soviet Union. Their religious legitimacy finds itself under question today merely because they are rebels without a cause that is supported by any major global power, since in actuality the religion of blood and martyrdom that they learnt so well when it was fed to them through propaganda was never an accurate representation of Islam.

It is the view of most moderate followers of Islam and indeed other organized religion that these Taliban dilute the actual aim of Islam, of which they have become self professed protagonists. The vulgarization of fundamental puritanical Islam, mixed with native and ethnic pre-modern values has gained them recognition amongst their stronghold of primitive tribal domains on both sides of the Durand line. However, the cost of such an adventure has had an adverse effect on the majority of the Muslim world, populated by human beings as rational as anywhere else on the planet, and has given rise to questions on various subjects and issues of Islam. Their promulgation of an Islamic order in these harsh anti-Islamic times has been heavily criticized in the Islamic scholarly world (Donovan, 2008); in no small part due to its similarities to tribal customs and its inaccuracies when compared to religion.

The vast majority of clerics, devoted to moderation, cite that the duties of a good Muslim are to adhere to Islamic practices and refrain from vices. And in Islam, just as all other recognized religion, it is a must to respect the sanctity of human life. Under such duties, unless there is an evident threat to Islam, the individual must act in a non-confrontational manner. The Taliban’s have detracted from the code of ethics prevalent in the region and have created an aggressive stance. The entire northern region of Pakistan along with several areas of Afghanistan have been held hostage at the behest of these self-proclaimed ‘students of Islam’, overriding centuries of Islamic intellectual legacy.

For the discussion on the theological beliefs of the Taliban to move forward, this essay will divulge into a deeper aspect of Islam, which would allow us to understand different forms of Islamic jurisprudence. Theology is the discipline reflecting on the body of doctrinal knowledge. This field endeavors to expand and construct on the various loopholes present in the society, in line with the religious edifice i.e. the Quran and the Hadith. Doctrinal knowledge is not infallible or eternal; therefore it is imperative to keep religious knowledge and religion separate. In contemporary fundamentalism, the segregation between the former and the latter has eroded, making the interpretation of religion as religion in itself (Albertini, 2003, p456). Jurisprudence forms an important part in the development of Islamic society. The questions of principles with their applications in accordance to the needs, is achieved through this method. Therefore, jurists are given the responsibility to make the ‘fiqh’ (jurisprudence) coherent with the ‘shariah’ (law).

The Sunni branch of Islam has four main schools of jurisprudence, where most of the literary knowledge is acquired. The earliest and perhaps the most progressive school is that of Imam Abu Hanifa, and this branch advocates qiyas (analogy) and istihan (juristic preference). A classic example could be the protection of mothers of illegitimate children from stoning until the period of gestation is fulfilled. The concept known as the ‘sleeping fetus’, interprets the Quranic punishment through qiyas, maintaining the sanctity of human life. The room for development of law within the Hanafi School expects its members to emulate the founder’s methodology, and not simply to regurgitate his decisions in verbatim (Albertini, 2003,p459).

The second school of jurisprudence is based upon the ideas of Imam Malik ibn Anas that emerged in protest to the excessive use of qiyas in the Hanafi School. Originally, the Maliki School consented to a blind adherence of Islamic practice as it was in Medina during the time of the prophet. This changed over time to produce more innovative sources. The notions of maslaha mursala (legitimate public interest) and istihab (presumption of continuity) were established in order to ensure innovation did not break with scriptural and legal ordinances. Maliki School of jurisprudence is commonly found in northern Africa, Sudan, Bahrain and Kuwait. It has been seen as being women friendly as it has many practices, which conform to a more modern lifestyle. For example the case of ‘khul’ permits the women to file for divorce without the consent of her husband, provided the correct evidence and material is presented. They have acquired the ‘sleeping fetus’ dictum and have further relaxed themselves from the founder’s stance.

The third school was formed under Imam Ibn Hanbal and is rather conservative. Followers of this particular branch resort to strict adherence of the Quran and the Hadith and permit analogy only after the inability to resolve the dispute through scripts and tradition. Their dominance is in present day Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman and this school has been influential through the backing of their respective states, amongst Middle Eastern scholarly circles (Albertini, 2003,p460).

The last prominent school in modern Islamic discourse was formed under Imam Ibn Idris Al-Shafi, and draws heavy inspiration in Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa, Indonesia and Malaysia. They stand in between the Hanifis and the Malikis, with regards to their stance on religion. They generally reject juristic preference, but endorse analogy as long as it is derived from the primary source, and also insist on analogy being on illa (effective cause) that is clearly established in the Holy Scriptures. They also allow departure from previous precedents, similar to Hanafi’s, if the jurist has reached a better verdict in preserving the fundamentals. These schools though differ in their views and opinion, but do not form a confrontational scenario amongst each other; rather they compliment the adab al-ikhtilaf (ethics of disagreement) (Albertini, 2003,p461).

In modern day, a fifth strand of source of inspiration and guidance can be outlined, though it lacks textual background and scholarly material, it has become popular since the eighteenth century. Formed under the leadership of Ibn Abd Al-Wahab in the Arabian Peninsula, it rejected the practice of taqlid (emulation) and moved away from following any of the schools of jurisprudence. Interesting to note is that Ibn Abd Al-Wahab was raised and taught as a Hanbali, however, his beliefs began to diverge from that particular line of jurisprudence. If a parallel were to be drawn, the closest school to the Wahabi ideology would be Hanbali, as both advocate the strictest interpretation of Islam. In wahabism, none of the legal means developed by classical jurisprudence are accepted. Thus this implies a direct application of the Quran and Hadith, without any importance paid to historic precedents and limitations on the applicability of primary sources of law in individual cases; rendering the difference between sharia and fiqh obsolete (Albertini, 2003,p461).

The code of conduct in Islam divides clearly into five separate categories: fard (obligatory), mustahabb or mandub (not obligatory but recommended), mubah (neutral or permitted), makruh (not forbidden but discouraged), and haram (forbidden). Moreover, the Hanafi School distinguishes further by declaring fard and wajib, whereas the latter is near obligatory in duty but not divinely ordained. Similarly, Islam orders not all obligations to be fulfilled collectively, for example, carrying out jihad when not required is fard al-kifaya (an obligation satisfied in the name of all by being assumed by some) not fard al-ayn (essential obligation). The fifth category of conduct ‘haram’, even though being the strictest, has been open to scrutiny when decisions are taken regarding the chastisement of a Muslim if his or her ritual obligations are not being fulfilled. The earlier example of ‘sleeping fetus’ denotes this where the hanafi and the Mailki School have extended the period of gestation under the shelter of humanity and prevention of loss of human life. On the contrary, in Saudi Arabia and in Taliban era of Afghanistan the moral police publicly flogged men who are found outside the mosque during prayer times (Albertini, 2003,p462).

The paper revolves around the theological beliefs of the Taliban government of Afghanistan during 90’s; therefore, an understanding of the pre-1996 Afghan society needs to be understood. The country is perhaps the first to gain independence in the South Asian region in the year 1919. Established as a kingdom, it stood at the crossroads of cultures between south and central Asia. Since centuries the region and adjoining areas have produced scholars and authorities of Islam, who travelled to many countries spreading and promoting the religion. In 1896 a prominent ruler of Afghanistan, Amir Abdul Rahman was given the title of ‘Ziya Ul Millat wa ad-Din’ (the light of the nation and of religion). This Afghan ruler contributed significantly towards the consolidation of traditional religious establishments and brought them under state supervision (Magnus & Naby, 1998,p70). He had tried on many occasions to convert Shia Muslims to Sunni Islam, which resulted in either migration or marginalization of the Shia population. The Afghan society is predominantly Sunni and follows the Hanafi School of jurisprudence. Till about 1977 the dominance of this school of thought was included in every constitution drafted in Afghanistan. This on a social level also acted as a binding force for the Afghans to look east towards their Muslim brethrens who followed the same lineage of jurisprudence (Magnus & Naby, 1998,p71).

Afghanistan was mostly a rural and an agrarian society till the time of the Soviet invasion. Since the majority of the population was in villages, their access to religion has been through the word of the local Imam or Mullah. The makeshift mosques served as the only hub of religious and indeed educational discourse, and the Friday prayers and the sermons that preceded them became the most influential tools in the lives of the local Afghans. The local Imams had primarily been the only source of religion, which undermined the greatness of the religion, as most of them were equipped with a very basic set of knowledge. This has traditionally gained the village Mullahs a lot of respect within their society and has played as an integral part in the politics of the country. As Afghanistan has pre-dominantly been a pasthun majority area, the pashtunwali (pashtun tribal code) has interfered and overlapped with all customs and practices of the country. It has been seen as an integral part in aiding the religion in areas of dispute. The code primary themes cover behavior and relations within the society, promoting a patriarchal and male chauvinistic approach. Themes such as melmastia and mehrmapalineh (concerning hospitality to guest), nanawati (right to asylum), badal (blood revenge), tureh (bravery), meranah (manhood), imandari (righteousness), ghayrat (defense of property and honor), and namus (defense of the honor of women) have ruled over the hearts and minds of tribal pashtuns (Goodson, 2001,p416).

Since there were no Madrasa of well repute in Afghanistan, motivated and determined scholars would travel to Bokhara or India to gain a quality education. This brought about the introduction of the Deobandi School into the Afghan society. The madrasa at Deoband quickly flourished due to its strict adherence to Hanafi Interpretation and new educational methods (Magnus & Naby, 1998,p76). Early Afghan scholars could spend about ten to twelve years at the Deoband covering a vast syllabus of Islam, which included the Hanafi fiqh, Arab and Persian literature along with Greek and Arab philosophy. Deoband amongst many other unique characteristics maintained a strict adherence to orthodoxy and rejected bid’at (additions to religion). It also distanced itself from the cult of saints; however, it incorporated the Sufi order especially of the naqshbandi and qadiri lineage (Roy, 1990,p57). This resonated with traditonal Afghani islamic practices as such orders were common over there. Similarly during the struggle for independance in India agasint the British Raj, Deoband prepared a very islamic framework to defend the fall of the Ottoman Calihpate. This drive was also echoed in Afghanistan by the initiative to carry out anti British operations in the frontier regions of Afghanistan. Whilst its primary goal of protection of the Caliphate turned into a rather futile exercise as the Turks decided to rid themselves of it, the drive resulted in the creation of many deobandi madrasas along the current Pak-afghan border developing students to defend and resist british imperialism. The deoband school of religious studies, propogated a pan islamic sub-continent and was against the creation of Pakistan. This idea reflected their vision to envisage a mulsim hegemony in the entire region, therefore, the idea of nationalism was more of a Salafi tradtion, and limiting the scope of islam within a country was discouraged by the school (Roy, 1990,p58). The above mentioned point, will perhaps be an important factor in distiguishing the propogations of the Taliban beliefs.

In the twentieh century, the status qou of the Afghani society and politics was severely disprupted. In the 70’s the king faced a coup and was exiled from the land leaving administration in the hands of the his cousin and a western ally. Politcal turbulence continued till the 80’s when finally the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan and set the stage for the cold war. The American government with the help of the Pakistani administration and Saudi Arabian funding succesfully raised an army of various ethnicities, under the banner of Islam. The Pakistani administration provided the techinical know how and strategic cover to the mujahideen warriors along with manpower in the shape of madrasa students and even some paramilitary troops. The Saudis invested through heavy funding and exported radicals from their land into Afghanistan. Saudi arabia not only exported money but helped build a wahabi party in neighbouring Pakistan by the name of Itehad –e- islami, which spread the salafi version of Islam amongst the Afghan wariors thus transfering the wahabi movement onto another region. The resulted in tension amongst various ethnic Afghans, as the wahabi ideology was viewed as foreign, and it disregarded both sufi and local traditions, however, under the greater good of expelling non-muslims i.e. the Soviets out of Afghanistan this resentment died out (Rashid, Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia, 2002, p83).

The war between Soviet Union and America through their Afghan proxies lasted for a decade, but its consequences lived on forever. After the Soviet withdrawal, western interest groups turned their back on the region, leaving the children i.e mujahideen, of war unchecked. With Afghanistan in shambles, the economy crippled and with other regional players influencing the upcoming political setup, the country fell back into civil war. The mujahideen warriors were constructed of roughly about eight ethnicities, and Sunni muslims were in majority. After the soviet retreat, each ethnic group held their locations in order to secure it and, fought the other side at any oppurtunity. Unity was at the lowest, and religious zeal was converting into material gains and power politics. Pakistan being the most connected and affected neighbour groomed and backed the taliban to take over the capital Kabul, in order to have an army of its own creation serve its regional interest. The non pashtun fighters who had arrived during the mujhaideen war not only brought wahabi influence, but brought with themselves ample amounts of foreign exchange to fund the Taliban adventure. The Taliban emerged in mid-1994. The most commonly believed account of their origin is that the core of the movement was formed at the moment when a group of local religious leaders took up arms against a commander who had abducted and raped two women in Kandahar in July 2004 (Rashid 2002,p25). The institutional spine of the Taliban has always been the network of madrasas in Pakistan and to some extent in Afghanistan. The teachers, alumni and religious students from these madrasas, which also happened to be predominantly Pashtun formed part of the Taliban. The Sunni religious leadership is not knit into tight hierarchical organizations, but rather operate in loose networks based on personal loyalties. This is exactly why the ability of the Taliban movement, in the mid-1990s, to mobilize a relatively coherent army with one leadership bank, influential throughout most of Afghanistan’s Pashtun south, was so impressive. The Taliban based themselves from madrasas in the Deobandi tradition, aiming at a society based on the Koran and the Sunnah – the practice of the Prophet (Harpviken, 2006,p6).

The Taliban’s first programmatic declarations were based on wide reaching popular consultations, and can be summed up in three basic points: to re-establish peace, disarm the population, and conform to sharia-law, defending the Islamic heritage of Afghanistan. Importantly, the frame of reference for all these objectives was the Afghan state. There was no reference – explicit or implicit – to the global Islamic community of believers. The objectives seemed attractive to a large share of the Afghan population, although many had reservations both about the blending of Islam and politics and about the Pashtun dominance (Harpviken, 2006,p9). One could see many similarities between the Taliban and the Wahabi movement that had spawned them. Both mobilized muster force on the pretext of jihad, martyrdom and removal of un-Islamic governments in order to establish an Islamic state. Similarly, both insisted on the necessity of ijtihad (interpretation) as being the most vital and correct form in developing Islam. The extreme prohibition of music and celebrations advocated by Wahabism is clearly evident in the Taliban version of Islam. Moreover, the establishment of the department for promotion of virtue and prevention of vice reflected a mirror image of the Wahabi setup in Saudi Arabia (Marsden, 2002,p73).

The taliban’s endevour to remain committed on jihad, even though there primary school of thought does not stress on the urgency of jihad, is seen as merely politcal and ethnic. If the Taliban had fallen susceptible to the western pressure and had relaxed their views on governance and Afghanistan, then a rebellion amongst their file and ranks was expected. The armed forces of the Taliban were fighting for an islamic cause, however, the pasthunwali code was a determining factor as well. The massacre of mazar –e – sharif by the Taliban forces was a clear result of their ethnic priorities lying before their religious goals. It was renowned for the taliban to remove any non pashtun official from the government position and place a taliban commander, defying merit and equality. The inability of the taliban to form a legalised and legitmate government, refelected their distance from knowledge. It became more and more evident that this was a band of illiterate ruffians that had finally been allowed to run havoc, all under the unfortunate banner of a religion that found its reputation tainted by the very people that claimed to study it.

The ad hoc style of administration in the Taliban was not commanded by any school of thought, in fact classical jurisprudence stresses the need of good governance more than anything else, when running an islamic state. Their form of governance gave more weightage on estabilishing a state which in letter proclaims islam, however, no substantial mechanism or method of statecraft was devised. Most of the Talibans carried the title of a mullah, which was self conferred, and passed verdicts without consulations and religious backing. Mullah Omar, the commander of the Taliban government, self proclaimed himself to be Amir ul Momineen (ruler of the faithful) without having full islamic qualifications. The Taliban ruled the country without the presence of a constitution, therefore, they derived legitimacy, law and policy through verbal decrees of Mullah Omar. In a famous incident of a gross violation of human rights, one of their ministers was reported to have said that a ‘heavenly order was publicly administered on the culprit’ (Kleiner, 2000). Although parallels may be drawn with Mr Bush and his alleged conversations with God, that is a discussion reserved for another essay.

The native form of shariah has been part of Afghan culture since many centuries, aided with the pasthunwali style of administration. Local mullahs and qazis (judges) decided upon local issues and passed verdicts in light of whatever limited amounts of knowledge were available to them, religious or general. Due to the remoteness of most of the villages, this practice remained unchecked by the state and therefore culminated in a de facto religious hoop, where any beard spoke the truth and larger beards were right. The Taliban simply regurgigated this village practice onto the national level, without having sufficient religious discourse to elaborate on many of the issues. The taliban publicly lashed women for adultery or acts relating to adultery, amputated limbs of men found guilty of robbery, alleged murders were shot or hanged in town centres and their bodies left to decay as warnings to the public. The few mentioned above do not reflect either the deobandi or the hanafi or the wahabi prescribed methods of carrying out justice. At this point in time, it became painfully obvious that these rulers lacked the capacity to rule.

Moreover, these acts according to classic islamic jurisprudence can hold the incumbent ruler or government responsible and result in compulsory retribution. A loose link is usually traced to such punishments, as the Quran referes to certain forms of punishment for acts decalred haram. However, they vary from the above method, and the execution and delivery of justice is always derived from jurisprudence; which the Taliban government conveniently failed to acknowledge, under the cloak of self percieved puritanical Islam. The justice carried out in the country were through jirgas (local councils) and the criterion of a judge was based on tribal norms rather than religious background or merit. In spirit the jirgas placed pasthunwali values higher, and justfied their custom laced verdicts through literal quranic and Hadith translations picked out to suit particular scenarios. Taliban as understood now avoided the introduction of emulation, as it could have undermined their local practices. Although the majority of the fighters were briefly educated in deobandi madrasa’s, by the time they reached the streets to take control of the governance, their desire to adhere to islamic principles would take a back seat to their primary education, that of a warrior trained to die for glory.

The Talibans had unfortunately no notion of communal scholarly quest that has a free space of inquiry and remains by nature open ended, which is common practice in common madrasas. Even though the Taliban strictly conformed to traditions of early islam, they conveniently mixed their pasthunwali practice and diluted their puritanical message. Today one of the finest samples of ijtihad are produced in far eastern muslim countries, that are geographically remote from the birth place of Islam. Modern civil law of western derivations, combined with the principles of muslim jurisprudence, allow them to claim the right to incorporate their pre islamic customs. Drawing reflections back to how the arabs in the 6th and the 7th century were allowed to retain their customary practices that fell in line with islamic principles. To the fundamentalist and the Taliban, such practices were an outragous disrespect to islam’s legacy and there was no need or indeed allowance for adaptations or alterations. Their perception of law is uniformity and rigidness through the entire islamic world, remaining unchanged in all ages. The Taliban had little interest in the ethics of a muslim and their priority was declaring holy war as manditory for all, and that punishment should be carried out in a gruesome manner to prevent further moral decay. The Taliban sharia served as a daily reminder of the administrations rigid and uncompromising religious interpretation. The crafting and expansion of rules through qiyas was seen as a potential threat which could weaken their control over their uneducated force and fellow Afghans. At this point, the Orwellian Animal farm had come full circle, and fellow animals were being led to the slaughter to serve as examples to the populus of the farm.

In conclusion the Taliban ideology thrived due to classical jurisprudence being marginalised and basic puritanical actions provided short term relief to the war torn nation. The ideological doctrine that inspired the taliban government sadly does not exist, as they were unable to produce substantial material backing their method of governance. They were a prodigy of the Pakistani Inter services Intelligence at the behest of Saudi oil dipped dollars shipped to the illiterate tribes in US wrapping paper. This creation gone wrong became a safe haven for the Al-Qaeda, and their simplistic aims became more similar to dictatorial conquistidors rather than religious freedom fighters. On the platform of religion they commited acts that vulgarised islam and undermined the religion’s notion of tolerant and just governance. They were created out of Deobandi madrassa’s, exposed to Wahabism, funded by saudi arabia, and supported by the Pakistan. In the middle of the mix whilst it was about to set was dropped the elixir of the illiterate, and so powerful a catalyst it proved to be that today we find the very meaning of a religion held hostage by a band of people working like a mafia.

The Taliban today are openly notorious, hence their legacy no longer extends itself under the guise of religious defence. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Taliban are an open alternative to the state economy, one that allows for a unique fusion of chauvenistic gun touting along with the earning of a wage through loot and plunder that amounts to several times the income earnt by any lawful member of society. If any man joins the Taliban around the heights of the Khyber pass today, they do so under a very clear and simple understanding. Long gone are the ideas of religion and defence. Today, it is all about the notoriety that comes with being a real man, providing for your numerous wives by stealing from the pro American extablishment and owning a gun in the process. A Beard helps, because it is the way of the Pashtun, not because it is a symbol of Islam. If ever the world is rid of these students of illiteracy, every nation and religion shall breathe a sigh of relief, with Afghanistan and Islam sighing loudest of all.

Bibliography

Ahmed, A. (2002). Ibn Khaldun's Understading of Civilizations and the Dilemmas of Islam and the West Today. Middle East Journal , 56 (1), 20-45.

Albertini, T. (2003). The Seductiveness of Certainty: The Destruction of Islam's Intellectual Legacy By the Fundamentalist. Philosophy East and West , 53 (4), 455-470.

Appleby, R. S., & Marty, M. E. (2002). Fundamentalism. Foreign Policy , 128, 16-22.

Armanois, F. (2003, December 22). The Islamic Traditions Of Wahhabism and Salafiyya. CRS Report for Congress , pp. 1-6.

Donovan, J. (2008, October 26). Are Theological Tensions Distancing Taliban From Al-Qaeda? Retrieved May 13, 2009, from Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty: http://www.rferl.org/content/Are_Theological_Tensions_Distancing_Taliban_From_Al_Qaeda/1332904.html

Fradkin, H., Haqqani, H., & Brown, E. (2006). Current Trends In Islamist Ideology. Center on Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World , 3, pp. 38-52.

Gannon, K. (2004). Afghanistan Unbound. Foreign Affairs , 83 (3), 35-46.

Goodson, L. P. (2001). Perverting Islam: Taliban Social Policy Toward Women. Central Asian Survey , 20 (4), 415-426.

Griffin, M. (2001). Reaping The Whirlwind: The Taliban Movement in Afghanistan. London, UK: Pluto Press.

Harpviken, K. B. ( 2006). The Transnationalisation of the Taliban. Transnationalism and Civil War (pp. 1-19). CSCW Working Group on Transnational and International Facets of Civil War.

Kepel. (2008). Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam. London, UK: I.B.Taurus Ltd.

Kleiner, J. (2000). The Taliban and Islam. Diplomacy and Statescraft , 11 (1), 19-32.

Magnus, R. H., & Naby, E. (1998). Afghanistan: Mullah, Marx, and Mujahid. Colorado, USA: Westview Press.

Malbouisson, C. D. (2007). Focus On Islamic Issues. New York: Nova Science Publishers Inc.

Maley, W. (1998). Fundamentalism Reborn? Afghanistan and The Taliban. London, UK: C. Hurst & Co.

Malik, I. H. (2005). Jihad, Hindutva and the Taliban. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Marsden, P. (2002). The Taliban: War and Religion In Afghanistan. London, UK: Zed Books Ltd.

Michot, Y. (2006). Muslims Under Non-Muslim Rule: Ibn Taymiyya. Oxford: Interface Publications.

Misra, A. (2002). The Taliban, Radical Islam and Afghanistan. Third World Quaterly , 23 (3), 577-589.

Olesen, A. (1996). Islam and Politics in Afghanistan. Richmond, UK: Curzon Press Ltd.

Oliveti, V. (2002). Terror's Source: The Ideology of Wahhabi-Salafism and its Consequences. Birmingham, UK: Amadues Books.

Rahnema, A. (1994). Pioneers Of Islamic Revival . London, UK: Zed Books Ltd.

Rashid, A. (2002). Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia. London, UK: I.B.Tauris & Co. Ltd.

Rashid, A. (1999). The Taliban: Exporting Extremism. Foreign Affairs , 78 (6), 22-35.

Roy, O. (1990). Islam and Resistance n Afghanistan. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Federal structure and ethnic friction in Pakistan

The construction of a federal society and constitution in Pakistan has been turbulent throughout history. All the constitutions of the state have arrived at solutions addressing different aspects of federalism, thus, some failed in producing a federal government whilst others were impractical. However, to determine the success and failure of the federal setup one needs to look at the legal disabilities of the documents and draw accounts of factors leading to disturbance in society. Along with the constitutional answer to the problem of federalism in Pakistan, understanding the need of the society and the political background would be essential. A viable setup would limit the role of centre in relation to provinces under the strength of the constitution safeguarding their share. Issues of national concern remain under strict central control, but units should enjoy autonomy over the resources and population under them, whereas, receiving their due share of contribution towards the nation-state. In Pakistan the centre has maintained a strict control over provinces and has interfered right from the beginning. The first and foremost example was of dismissal of several ministries in the provinces of NWFP, Sind and East Pakistan in the early years of creation. This set a precedent for future documents and legislation in legitimising centre’s intervention into provincial matters creating an undemocratic norm.

Much of Pakistan’s political history has run on military might than constitutional will, resulting in individualistic and personality based governance than ideological principles, creating a unitary system. The absence of stable representative government and democracy for elongated periods in the infant years of Pakistan’s development tilted the control over to the centre. Since control over centre was of high importance in determining the power struggle between various forces. The invaders of the constitution never allowed the evolution of the multi ethnic state into a nation as fears of insecurity and weakened control extended their powers onto the provincial subjects. Pakistan’s failure to produce a constitution till 1956 strengthened the grip of centre in provincial subjects, and when the document finally produced; the inefficiency and inadequacy of provisions led to political chaos and military takeover. The Ayubian rule stamped the position and presence of the army and bureaucracy in the functioning of the government with an authoritarian constitution.

The inability to address East Pakistan’s fear of suppression from West Pakistan, specifically Punjab, and the mishandling of the uprising led to civil war. The people of East Pakistan had begun the actual momentum of independence and creation of a separate Muslim homeland, with freedom and autonomy to govern self issues. The West Pakistani population- migrants and natives joined the cause to prevent themselves from the ethnic massacre taking place in through out of northern India. Therefore, the Bengali populous deserved more than what the state had provided them, even in times of national crisis and calamities the province received the underdog status. The famous language riots of 1952 in efforts to raise Bengali at par with Urdu as the national language were systematically suppressed, dimming chances of interprovincial harmony. One unit Pakistan was a simple and perfect tool for establishing the writ of the federal government but subsequently fuelled the need for independence in the hearts of East Pakistanis (Tepper, Pakistan and the Consequences of Bangladesh, 1973). While the Indian federation after the partition of 1947 allowed for linguistic heterogeneity, Pakistan miscalculated and created two separate units. Many efforts were made to reconcile the two units of Pakistan before the 1971 secession of Bangladesh. Signposts throughout Dhaka in Bengali were placed signifying West Pakistan’s acceptance to the linguistic differences. Though forty percent of the bureaucratic jobs were allocated for West Pakistan, the provision of Urdu being the official language could not host many candidates. From 1968 to 1970, only 2% of the top military elite were Bengalis and regardless of their higher population, received only 36% of the federal budget (Adeney, 2007). The Bengali Language Movement of the 1960’s turned into a quest for independence, and finally in 1971, after brutal death of hundreds of thousands of Bengali and Indian intervention, Bangladesh came into being. A simple solution of providing more provincial authority and right of language would have saved the East Pakistani loyalty and nationalism.

The beginning of the ‘third republic’ in 1973 symbolised hope and vision for the new nation of Pakistan. A detailed structure carving out necessary arrangement for the empowerment of the provinces was seen, as Pakistan saw its first truly representative form of government. The evolutionary process lasted for merely four years when a military coup in July 1977 led by General Zia Ul Haq, hampered the efforts of reaching a viable multi dimensional Pakistan. Military dictatorship bred hatred not just between centre and state, but also amongst provinces. It has been noted that whilst state-building requires a high level of centralized power, nation building calls for a dispersal of authority and an emphasis on responsiveness in the political system. Due to the military regimes, the latter has always been compromised.

A further dent in the federal-provincial relation has been the financial distribution of wealth amongst provinces. The Raisman Award in 1951 and the National Finance Commission Award in 1990 highlighted disparity of share in the pooled income of taxes and income from natural resources (Ghaus-Pasha & Bengali, 1999). The division of the federal budget is on the basis of population. Though smaller provinces require more than what they earn, for further development and economic prosperity. Due to the method of division of funds, a lot of grievances have been surfaced all across the country. Punjab is allotted the highest percentage of the Federal Budget even though it’s the developed of the four provinces. Since the province of Sind earns the highest revenue, the Sindi’s argue that the division should be on the basis of revenue generation, while NWFP and Baluchistan demand the division on the basis of backwardness. Allotment of funds should not be on the basis of the population but on requirement of the provinces to sustain development and uplift growth. A good federal system is tailored according to the need of the country’s geo-political and socio-cultural requirements, where at times population proportionality is not the criteria for receiving the federal share, as in Pakistan. The 1973 constitution established a Council of Common Interest providing relief to provinces over areas of wealth distribution, and proposed a 90% allocation on the basis of population whilst the 10% on the needs of the province, but the Pakistani political dynamics never allowed such implementations to occur (Adeney, 2007).

The fact that Sind provides the highest level of revenue, Baluchistan gas and NWFP hydroelectric power but the provinces of Punjab benefits from the resources and the higher federal budget has caused all the other provinces to articulate grievances against Punjab and Punjabis in particular. The bureaucracy and army was overwhelmingly of Punjabi ethnicity and their repeatedly occurrences into power with Punjab as a province receiving the greatest share of resources had led to ethnic frustration. Another prevailing federal challenge faced by Pakistan is due to scarcity of water and the construction of the Kalabagh Dam in Punjab. Punjab argues that the main generation of revenue is from agriculture and seeing as it is the most populated one it should be allowed to construct the dam. However, the Sindi’s and Baluchi’s would not be able to receive the necessary irrigation facilities and would result in a collapse of their economy. It is important that sacrifices are made in the name of national unity and sovereignty while Punjab is unwilling to make them.

The latest development in the field of federalism has been the incorporation of the Legal Framework Order into the 1973 constitution. The Musharraf rule aimed to overcome the problems of its military predecessors and acquired a more democratic role in the running of the government. It introduced the local government and spread grass root democratic values, allowing participation at the lowest level. However, this left the centre and the local government with authority and the status of provincial autonomy further diminished. Many politicians have argued that an increase in the power of the local government would be a positive development if the powers of the provincial governments were enhanced simultaneously. On the other hand, many argue that due to the corruption of the provincial governments it is best to leave the power with the local governments. All in all, in a federation where centralization has only lead to conflict and secession of provinces in the past, can only lead to conflict in the absence of more provincial autonomy (Adeney, Federalism and Ethnic conflict regulation in India and Pakistan, 2007).

The development of Gwadar port in the south of Baluchistan and the sudden influx of Punjabi workers revived the sentiments of hatred against the Punjabis and the government. The profits of development of Baluchistan are enjoyed by the army and the Punjabis, Baluch are faced with a territorial invasion by the government, this lead to a violent outbreak against Musharraf at the end of 2005. Musharraf launched an army operation killing 72 people and leaving 227 injured (Adeney, 2007). As mentioned earlier, the sentiments of the Baluchi’s were exasperated due to the massacre of an influential tribal leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti. The federal design cannot address the issues of ethnic representation in the army or the bureaucracy but mechanisms of consociation do.

The spirit of the Pakistan resolution of 1940 has been quashed over and over by not allowing the transformation of Pakistan into a loose federation. The Pakistan Oppressed National Movement comprising of various ethno-nationalist groups have manifested a three point agenda on protecting their provincial and economic rights. Firstly, the establishment of a loose federation of autonomous and sovereign Punjabi, Sindi, Baluchi, Pathan, and Seraiki population and secondly, that each should be labelled as states in accordance to the spirit of 1940 resolution; thirdly, the federation should be vested with powers conferred by mutual agreement and consent (Kundi, 2000).

The trickledown effect of constitutional and administrative ineffectiveness has transformed the face of ethnic harmony amongst the Pakistani populous. Pakistan’s population mix resides in provinces under the following percentage: 57% Punjab, 24% Sind, 14% NWFP, 5% Baluchistan. However, this figure is not representing the actual ethnicity presence in Pakistan, as for example the province of Sind is homeland for two ethnic groups i.e. Sindi’s and Muhajir’s. After the implementation the 1973 constitution, the provinces were given enough autonomy to change the provincial languages. The adoption of Sindhi as the working-language led to the formation of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). Riots broke out by the end of 1980’s and the leader of MQM demanded that the Mohajirs should be recognized as the fifth nationality in Pakistan (Adeney, 2007).

The federal structure in Pakistan has not been truly representative of the ethnic divisions in Pakistan. Distinguishing ethnicity in Pakistan is primarily on the basis of territory and linguistics and ethnicity, as race and religion are more or less homogenous. Successive efforts by the governments and constitutions have failed to address the existence of various ethnic groups in Pakistan. Efforts have always been directed towards central or provincial authorities, excluding the representation of significant ethnic groups and therefore the process of nation building has been slow-moving. This issue has not only given rise to political instability but also to regionalism in the country. Under the existing majoritarian democracy, it is in-evitable for a Punjabi dominated party to form government at centre as to their sheer size of population. Similarly, the First Past the Post electoral voting system does not account for the different ethnic groups residing in the constituencies. The Indian model of heterogeneity in their answer to federalism has created momentum and hopes in the Pakistani process of nationalism. For example, the Muhajir population of Sind are larger in number than the ethnically Baluch population but reside under the province of Sind. Arguments and movements for separate autonomous region bearing the Muhajir population have come up throughout the latter half of Pakistani history. As they fail to understand the reasoning behind the existing disparity of ethnicities that are less in number, yet receive more subsidiaries and attention from the state.

However, the anti federalists in the centre have repeatedly denied such demands and authorities have also resorted to state intervention in curbing violence. Such ethnic groups have gained power through political manoeuvres and elections and along with the instable forms of governance and military takeovers, received undue advantage of the centre’s attention. Such regionalist forces and parties due to inefficiency of the setup have bred hatred amongst ethnicities and have made the Pakistani political dynamics volatile (Adeney, Federalism and Ethnic conflict regulation in India and Pakistan, 2007). Federal politics has not only been between state and centre but within states as well, therefore, harmony at ground zero level of politics has never existed. The transition to democracy for a new born state is a difficult process and require due diligence. Especially given the ethnic mix of Pakistan, special care needs to be given on security and autonomy of these groups. The system of federalism is perhaps the best fit solution but it needs to be tailored according to the demands of the society.

Recommendations have been made on ensuring Pakistan’s federal polity. Firstly, the abolition of the concurrent list as they have been misused; the provinces did not have their fair share to legislate on those lists due to centre’s heavy involvement. This should be replaced by simply creating federal subjects in consultation with the provinces and the residual power should reside with the provinces. Then, the involvement of senate in the legislative process should be of a more active nature, with powers to amend, initiate and repeal a bill. Though this process would delay the working of the state but will ensure equal opportunity and sovereignty in the decision making process. The distribution of wealth should be divided on the basis of need to the province than their population size, with approval of the senate for each province (Ghaus-Pasha & Bengali, 1999). Along with these constitutional implementations an expansion in the current number of provinces is required.

The need for division and empowerment of ethnic groups on the basis of linguistics, the existing territories should be further divided. An example would be of the Seraiki belt being separated from mainland Punjab and similarly creation of a separate province for the Urdu speaking population in Sind. These recommendations would not just ensure a smooth functioning of the state system, but help in establishing a strong national identity within Pakistan. This process of empowerment would be hollow and disastrous if the responsible democratic process is not ensured within the republic. The need for support of positive political ideology and maturity is essential whilst maintaining inter ethnic harmony. Pakistan in its sixty years of independence has been far from the process of national reconciliation and certain power groups have left vacuums in the system. The constitutional guarantee is a key tool in ensuring all the afore-mentioned which would only be induced through a national will and determination. A process of systematic development and revolution would be vital in solving the quagmire of political and ethnic tensions prevailing in the country.

Economic predictions and forecast during the Musharraf regime

Faisal Cheema in his occasional paper produced in 2004, highlights key indicators to develop a sustainable economy. He clearly indentifies areas, which needed concern from the regime in order to avoid macro economic instability. Despite improvement in all sectors of the economy, it is at the take-off stage[1] and faces many challenges that still need to be addressed. Pakistan’s poverty rate continues to rise. Unemployment in Pakistan has been aggravated due to constraints on public expenditures in recent years. A major contributing factor to growing impoverishment is Pakistan’s population growth rate of 2.6 percent per annum that will lead, according to one estimate, to a doubling of the population by 2020. Controlling the population growth rate is fundamental to improving per capita income (Cheema, May 2004).

In the future, the performance of Pakistan’s economy will depend upon the interplay of domestic, regional, and international factors[2]. First, on the domestic front, the performance of the economy depends upon the continuity of structural reforms imposed by the military government of General Musharraf. Success in continuing implementation of governance reforms, police reforms, banking sector reforms, administrative reforms, civil service reforms, and so on, will determine the future course of action (Cheema, May 2004,).

Second, political stability is a determining factor for macroeconomic stability. The political parties, parliament, the independent press, and a fair and impartial judiciary all need to be strengthened in order to achieve and sustain higher growth rates. High growth rates occurred under military governments (Przeworski & Limongi, Political Regimes and Economic Growth, 1993), but sustained high growth rates can only be achieved in a strong democracy, which has a built-in system of checks and balances necessary for development.

Third, there is need to foster inter-provincial and inter-sectional harmony in Pakistan to sustain a proper climate for overall economic development. Smaller provinces must be given a fair, adequate recompense of their tax contributions as a share of federal resources. Political leadership in these provinces must stop inciting the population against the central government and other provinces, as well as avoiding incitement of the violent religious sectarianism that has undermined public security. An improving law and order situation will help in attracting foreign direct investment in the country (Cheema, May 2004).

Finally, the international image of the country needs improvement. In recent years, Pakistan’s image in the international community has been damaged due to the rise of violent extremist and fundamentalist elements in the society. This has aggravated the decline of foreign investment in Pakistan.

Globally, the relationship with the United States and international financial institutions remains crucial to the performance of Pakistan’s economy. As far as the United States is concerned, there is need for Pakistan to cultivate a long-term, cooperative relationship. This will help Pakistan in receiving US investment, but also is a key determinant for Pakistan’s relations with the international financial institutions. To maintain a positive long-term relationship with the United States, Pakistan must control extremist elements in its society and continue its cooperation in the war on terrorism, the central US foreign policy concern at this time. The Musharraf government, which is a step in the right direction, banned many extremist organizations but there still is a need to monitor such elements closely in the future. Finally, the issue of nuclear proliferation must be resolved (Zaidi A. , occasional paper, 2004).

The IMF and the World Bank have shown satisfaction with Pakistan’s economic performance in recent years (Abed, 2003). The improved relationship with the IMF will help Pakistan in poverty alleviation and macroeconomic stabilization. Likewise, the World Bank will help Pakistan in continuing and maintaining structural reforms in the major sectors of its economy. The experience of developing countries with IMF and World Bank involvement in their economies has shown mixed results. The proponents of these institutions argue that IMF and World Bank assistance is necessary in solving the economic problems of the member countries in order to keep its economy afloat. But opponents of the IMF and World Bank roles in the economies of developing countries make a case that these institutions have created more problems for the member countries than they solve, condemning their failure to alleviate poverty (Easterly, 2001).

They argue that these institutions are politicized. They especially criticize the “conditionality’s” that these institutions attach to loans to debtor countries. To them, these conditionality’s are a major impediment to human development in the member countries (Cheema, May 2004).

They argue that conditionality’s are often self-contradictory and complicate the economic environment of member countries. Pakistan is a case in point. “On the one hand, the IMF and the World Bank expect Pakistan to do much for the alleviation of the poverty, whose one manifestation is a high rate of unemployment, and are ready to fund such efforts, and on the other, they insist on downsizing and rapid privatization of public sector enterprises along with deep cuts in public spending.” (Easterly, 2001) Furthermore, opponents criticize the IMF and World Bank for pushing Pakistan to adopt the “Washington Consensus” agenda that emphasizes economic liberalization and deregulation of the economy, compounding its economic problems (Cheema, May 2004).

· Understanding the Take-Off school

The take-off school is the theory behind identifying growth and reaching sustainable levels of achievement in the economy. It considers various factor per se, the role of the society and the economic and political system present. Being dynamic in nature it understands, it assesses the social framework and therefore, has been relevant in the case of Pakistan. The aspect necessary to understand is the categories in which it describes growth, as they have been applicable in the case of Pakistan. The theory breaks growth into five stages and reflects on how a state moves from being agrarian in nature, to self sufficient and sustainable market economy. Firstly, exists a traditional society whose structure is developed within limited production functions. Ad hoc innovations in trade, industry, and agriculture are used to raise the productivity. However, a ceiling exists on such a society to not be able to grow fully due to lack of technology and regularity. More emphasis within these societies is given to agriculture, as it is related closely to the hierarchical social structure. Landowners maintain their grip over political centers and influence the working of the state through their capacity (Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, 1990,p5). In reference to Pakistan, although the traditional society discuses the pre-Newtonian[3] attitude, such fiefdoms and structures exist in the rural. The hold of feudalism and tribalism dominates and dictates the lives of many individuals in the rural belt. Laws of economy and society are dictated by native traditions than national laws.

The second stage is the pre-conditions for take off reflecting at the transition of the traditional society in acquiring technological advancements in agriculture and productions. This is partly due to external influence of other advanced societies, creating a causal link with the outside world and opening of markets. The idea of development comes about; as it is considered promote national dignity, private profit and general welfare. New entrepreneurs spring up with growing financial institutions and mobilizing the capital market. Investment is increased in the communications and transport sector widening the scope of commerce. However, this condition does not eliminate the traditional society and the both function side by side in improving the general condition (Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, 1990,p6). A balance of political, social and economic values is created, defining a national strategy in some cases, especially in the case of Pakistan. To resonate the theory, Pakistan under Musharraf under went this stage as foreign capital and influence allowed, investors and multinationals to invest in Pakistan. The urban centers saw a ride in human capital development and certain services sector of the economy started to thrive. Namely, the telecommunications industry saw foreign buying and privatization of many sectors was becoming common.

The take-Off stage is the establishment of a modern society. Forces of economic progress expand and dominate the society, and institutional structure is laid down to compliment robust growth. As Rostow highlights, the take-off stage in Britain and United States marked the technological advancement and development in industry and agriculture through series of modernization (Rostow, The Economics of Take-off into Sustained Growth, 1963). Similarly, also the political power recognizing the importance of economic prosperity, and inculcating the implications of economic success in they’re decision making. During this stage new industries expand rapidly, which profits yielded being ploughed back to the development and growth of the sector. The trickle down affects causes workers to accumulate more disposable income and either opt for savings or acquire other services within the economy. This expands on the economic activity and dormant sectors, or un-used natural resources are exploited through private investment (Rostow, The Process of Economic Growth, 1960).

This is followed by the drive to maturity where steady sustained growth drives the economy towards complete modernization. About 20% of the national income is invested back into the economy through various economic activities, increasing output in relation to the increase in population. The make up of the economy changes, as newer advanced units, with bigger investments, replace inefficient industries. The national economy begins to seep into the global economy and starts taking part in global economics. Much of the technological import is now developed at home and exports are matched with competitiveness, balancing of the necessary units of production with increased outputs. The key to this stage is the time and consistency the economy needs, as the perquisite for this level is to allow the previous stage to sustain for over half a century and wash out the in efficiencies’. This stage identifies the independence of the economy to produce on the basis economic choice and political necessity, rather then technological or institutional constraints (Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, 1990). The stage also requires political maturity to accompany the growth and sustainable development, with addressing all the social sectors of the economy. To create a living example, the economy of India is reaching a maturity stage, where to a certain extent, the above-mentioned features are being demonstrated or applied.

The final stage is referred to the age of high mass consumption, where leading sectors shift towards durable consumer goods and services. As the maturity stage elevates the economy into stabilization, the structure of society begins to change as well. Proportion of urban population increase and so does the number of skilled worker per capita. Increased resources are allocated to social welfare and security, since technological advancement is achieved, economies tend to cater to consumer services, and acquire a welfare nature. Economies at this stage, have passed through the development in primary and secondary sector, therefore, the services sectors is given priority. Consumer needs become the driving force for further growth in the economy (Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, 1990).

· What went wrong towards the end of the regime: highlighting the mismanagement

Until the October 2008 economic crisis, the Musharraf government’s economic policies were generally perceived to be a great success. In fact, Pakistan appeared to have one of the best economic growth records in its region. Based on these perceptions, there was widespread optimism that the country might finally break out of its post-independence cycle of boom and bust to achieve the type of high sustained economic growth that India has been experiencing since the early 1990s (Looney R. , The Musharraf Paradox: The Failure of an Economic Success Story, 2008).

The reforms introduced during the Musharraf administration were designed to address many of Pakistan’s economic problems. In particular, they targeted the country's massive poverty, stagnant economic growth, deteriorating institutional framework and weak governance structures. Musharraf ‘s regime embraced globalization, structural reforms, and opened the country to investment and trade[4]. Cities and towns seemed to be booming, and the country managed to recover impressively from the devastating earthquake of 2005. Towards the end of the Musharraf era, the economy grew at abnormal rates between 7% and 7.5% being termed as amongst the fastest growing economies. The share of industry output was rising in the GDP from 22.6% in 2000 to 22.7% in 2006. Though minimal in nature but the regime claimed to have achieved an astronomical figure. The annual percentage growth in industrial value added doubled; the share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP increased by three percentage points. The services sector posted an impressive performance, with annual growth of the value added in services nearly doubling over seven years (Looney R. , Failed to Take off: An Assessment of Pakistan's October 2008 Economic Crisis,

2009).

Yet by early 2008, the economy was in trouble. It faced a rapid loss of foreign exchange reserves, mounting inflationary pressures and declining rates of growth (Khan & Saqib, 2009). What went wrong? While some analysts blame external factors, such as rising international commodity and oil prices, global recession and change in the American interest, others argue that long-term domestic mismanaged economic factors caused Pakistan’s sudden Economic collapse (Looney R. , The Musharraf Paradox: The Failure of an Economic Success Story, 2008). The Musharraf government’s economic team was lead by Shaukat Aziz[5], who turned the economic into a highly consumer based market. The lack of infrastructural development and commitment towards regulating in-efficiencies mixed with income disparity took a heavy toll on the economy. The government under their rule proclaimed to have increased the number of mobile phone users in the country. The achievement, highlighted as the biggest success story, turned against the national economy in the longer run. Since the figures of the communication sector were included in the GDP, it allowed the government to claim growth in the economy. However, most of the companies were foreign owned, and due to lack of restriction on flight of capital, unfortunately, the people of Pakistan were not the beneficiary. A mixture of liberalization and market openness left the economy vulnerable to exit of foreign capital (Amjad, 2007).

The interventionist policies by the State Bank of Pakistan, under the directives of the government, led to de valuation of currency and rising cost of imports. Which in turn meant less investment of capital goods and slowing the process of industrialization. On the other hand, privatization of key industries allowed foreign takeovers with revenues earned leaving the economy. this also aided the income disparity and creating a weaker link between economic growth and poverty reduction.

The above-mentioned ‘take-off school’ contends that the ‘Musharraf strategy’ compounded many pre- existing structural problems, creating serious imbalances throughout the economy. These imbalances continue to destabilize Pakistan’s economy and its society are the source of much of the country’s current violence and discontent (Looney R. , The Musharraf Paradox: The Failure of an Economic Success Story, 2008).

The leading proponent of this school in Pakistan, Shahid Javed Burki, a former Minister of Finance and World Bank Vice President, argues that, despite early positive signs, the Musharraf Government missed a golden opportunity to put the economy on a new growth path. While the administration’s pro-business orientation unleashed considerable entrepreneurial activity, it was not accompanied by the on-going improvements in governance, economic freedom and financial reform necessary to complete the takeoff and achieve sustained growth and development8. Of particular importance were limited improvements and, in some cases, deterioration in the five key governance areas monitored by the World Bank: (1) voice and accountability, (2) political stability, (3) government effectiveness, (4) regulatory quality, (5) rule of law and (6) control of corruption (Looney R. , Failed to Take off: An Assessment of Pakistan's October 2008 Economic Crisis, 2009).

The claims made by the Musharraf government of regulating weak structures of the economy were a tool of securing legitimacy and political recognition. The lack of concern towards institutional development of as industries, agriculture and the services sector led to the problem created in 2008. The government implemented popular strategy and along with certain tenants of liberalization, thus, creating a recipe for disaster. To appease the international financial institutions, the government induced the system of local bodies and grass root democracy. This was complimented by corruption and negligence of various issues of governance. Allowing foreign investment into the country was to secure confidence from international donors, thus creating short-term strategies (Nazar, Faltering economy, 2008). The government’s economic strategy, together with the underdevelopment of institutional support, created an environment increasingly at odds with high rates of sustained economic growth. While the country was able to attract considerable amounts of more foreign investment, most of these funds went into import activities to satisfy domestic demand, instead of into the export sector. This pattern of investment placed increasing pressure on the balance of payments, making the country very vulnerable to external shocks and reductions in external capital flows (Amjad, 2007). In addition, the Musharraf administration failed to anticipate the supply bottlenecks, particularly in the areas of electricity and gas, which would inevitably result from a sharp increase in GDP. By 2006-7, energy shortages were forcing many firms to shorten hours and reduce output, and there was mounting concern that the power shortage would affect the productive capacity and export performance of the country. In all fairness to the Musharraf administration, the energy crisis was the result of long-term supply-side neglect. Beginning in the early 1980s, the gap between the consumption and generation of electricity had steadily expanded, but no augmenting measures were initiated. Not until very recently were the country’s problems examined in any sort comprehensive way (Looney R. , The Musharraf Paradox: The Failure of an Economic Success Story, 2008).

Next, the tax base remained narrow and rather inflexible. The Musharraf government failed to realize that major fiscal reforms were needed to pull wide segments of the population out of poverty and, thus, prevent growth from widening income inequalities13. Specifically, the income tax system was not adjusted. As a result, only about 2% of Pakistani population paid direct income tax, while approximately 70% of tax revenue was generated by indirect taxes, which placed most of the tax burden on the poor, the salaried class and the business sector. Not only did the poor pay more than their fair share of taxes, but also they benefitted little from the Musharraf economic expansion. Much of the increase in GDP came from the sectors which returned high rewards to the investors but in which the share of wages was relatively low. Real estate development was one of the important sectors of the economy, as was the modern service sector. Neither, at least in the context of Pakistan, generated employment and income for the poorer segments of the population (Sharif, MacroEcnomic Stability in Pakistan, 2009).

Another area where the Musharraf administration failed to make any progress at reform was the country’s sprawling military industrial complex Milbus[6]. Over the years, Pakistan’s military had expanded its holdings of industries, properties and foundations. These properties guaranteed the armed forces both organizational autonomy and a regular flow of resources from the public and private sectors – often to the enrichment of senior officers, both active-duty and retired. It is estimated that the military controlled 12% of state land, or 11.58 million acres. Much of this land was rented at very low fees to military personnel. The estimated total wealth of this sector may have been as high as $100 billion (Siddiqa, 2007). From an economic perspective, these activities are nothing like the leading industries in rostow’s theory of ‘take off’ and growth. This practice benefitted only a few organization and individuals, virtually being no different than previous democratic governments. Diluting the claims of the Musharraf government of empowering the impoverished. This compromised the economic growth and the economic activities did not have a trickle down affect onto the masses. Instead ‘milbus’ encouraged crony capitalism and inefficiency, placing a tremendous drag on economic expansion. Pakistan’s underinvestment in human capital was another structural problem that had existed almost since independence (Siddiqa, 2007).

Burki argues, in sum, Pakistan’s economic meltdown was precipitated by basic structural problems that have repeatedly interacted to create balance of payments crises. To begin with, Pakistani economy is heavily dependant on imports. The country’s imports always surpass its exports, many of which consist of traditional items of poor quality due to Pakistan’s poor human capital development. Next, Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio is 10%, far below the average 17% of developing countries. Even more telling, less than two percent of the population is covered by the tax net. Thus, the Musharraf government’s huge expenditure on debt servicing, defense and current spending resulted in fiscal deficits that reached 7.4% of GDP by FY2008 (Looney & McNab, Pakistan's Economic and Security Dilemma: Expanded Defence Expenditures and the Relative Governance Syndrome, 2008). Simply put, Musharraf policies made Pakistan dangerously dependent on foreign capital. The country’s political instability and lack of significant progress in governance and economic reforms further increased its vulnerability to a fall-off in foreign capital. By 2007, it found itself in a position where any major reduction in foreign capital inflows would precipitate an economic crisis. In addition to this pre-existing set of structural conditions, specific economic policies pursued under President Pervez Musharraf helped trigger the October 2008 crisis. For Example the high consumption strategy allowed growth, aided by generous aid inflows, rising asset prices and loose monetary policy; this resulted in inflation. A by-product of the high-consumption strategy; resulted in extreme high inflation, which rose steadily after March 2007 to eventually reach 25%. Along with global hike in food and oil prices, essential corrective measures through tighter monetary policy were delayed. The current account deficit widened during the last three years of Musharraf rule, as consumption growth was accompanied by a consistent growth in imports. This deficit was met with stable flows of remittances, aid and portfolio investment, together with strong export performance. However, excessive dependence on foreign capital inflows made the current account highly vulnerable.

These factors contributed to a slowing of growth in 2007. In most countries, the slowing of growth usually does not cause political problems, unless gains from previous growth have been inequitably distributed. Unfortunately, the Musharraf administration’s pro-business policy bias, lack of democratic feedback and authoritarian style of policy-making were also not conducive to equitable growth and broad-based development. While no detailed studies of income distribution are available for the last several years of Musharraf regime, Burki estimates that around 10 million Pakistanis benefitted from the economic growth and restructuring, 25 million would have entered the system had it not been disrupted, and 45 million were completely ignored. Furthermore, he notes that regional inequality emerged from the Musharraf era, whose economic benefits were largely confined to the central and northern Punjab and large cities, such as Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Faisalabad and Gujranwala. The ‘failed take-off school’ contends that Pakistan’s political history suggests, economic developments can create great political instability (A.A, 1987). For example, there was a widespread perception that the benefits of the extraordinary economic expansion that occurred under President Ayub Khan in the 1960s went to a very limited number of prominent families (Licht). The authoritarian growth model that developed during this time created such a wide disparity of income between East and West Pakistan that it eventually resulted in the break up of the country. Similar, although less dramatic, changes took place in the late 1980s at the end of the Zia authoritarian era. In both these examples, the aggrieved resorted to violence to achieve their goals (Looney R. , Trends, 2008).



[2] Influence and reliance on foreign aid

[3] Newton is used as a symbol for that watershed in history when men came widely to believe that the external world was subject to a few knowable laws, and was systematically capable of production.

[4] The argument remains contentious. In the following paragraphs, his failures to implement the strategies and claims under his regime will be evaluated.

[5] Former banker at Citicorp and World Bank, who initially was hired as an advisor on finance, but later on, was elected as the Prime Minister under the Musharraf Government. He has been accredited with most economic policies and re-negotiations of debts under the eight years of rule.

[6] Milbus refers to ‘military business’. A term coined by Dr Ayesha Siddiqa in her book Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy.